October 08, 2014
Well, I Guess It HAS Been That Long
PowerPuffage by Tjota.
Good grief I'm old....
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Thomas Eric Duncan Has Died
It is easy to despise the man who lied to authorities and in so doing, knowingly brought Ebola to our shores. However, it bears remembering that he was infected by an act of selflessness. Duncan helped carry his landlords stricken daughter as her desperate father went from hospital to hospital trying to get her medical help.
There were no beds available at any hospital. No one could see her.
She died that night.
Duncan then was confronted with the fact that there was no way to get treatment in his country and he had just been exposed. At the same time, there was, no doubt, still in the Liberian press, news of the recovery of both missionaries who had been transported to the US for treatment.
So, surrounded by death and a condemned man, Duncan took a chance. Because he had connections here and Liberia is a nation whose history is closely linked to ours, it is easy to get passage from there to here. Duncan came to the US and at the first sign of illness checked himself into a hospital where he explained his background.
They told him he was clear, gave him antibiotics and sent him home.
Why did he not get a second opinion?
That which we most desperately want to believe, we often believe.
I can only speculate, but I imagine that Duncan, having been "cleared" by American doctors, allowed himself to believe for a few joyous days that he had dodged the bullet, the sheer elation would have made his symptoms seem to pass...until the cruel truth was made undeniable by stabbing pains and the blood that vomited forth from his mouth.
Thomas Eric Duncan died in a most dreadful fashion at 07:51 this morning. Given that his actions have greatly endangered many who would not otherwise been at risk, he is certainly open to criticism. However, it is probably advisable to pause and reflect while denouncing this desperate man's actions. I say this not simply because of the charitable manner in which he became infected, nor out of empathy for the terror he must have felt in the hell-hole that Monrovia now is.
I say this because he can teach an important lesson to those of us not too arrogant to learn from his mistake. Disbelieving terrifying truths or denying facts we find dreadfully unfair are types of self delusion that do not confine themselves to Fed Ex drivers from Africa. Such wishful thinking can spread death amongst many, no matter the social status or education of the willfully deluded.
That judge mentioned in the linked piece, no doubt thought he was being decent and kind by not treating the family as unclean, that it was unfair that they, through no fault of their own could be infected and despicable that they be treated as plague carriers.
The problem is that they are almost certainly infected, this bug is extremely contagious in confined spaces, quarantine for the incubation period is the only rational option and the judge has endangered not just himself but his coworkers and his daughter.
Thomas Eric Duncan did an awful thing and endangered many for perfectly human (though not really justifiable) reasons. Rather than simply cursing the man, we should learn from and endeavor to not repeat his mistakes.
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October 07, 2014
Log Horizon 2: First Impressions
Log Horizon was huge surprise to me last year and a pleasant one. This season hardly feels like a break at all as the series starts pretty much where the last episode left off (actually a bit before that). It takes a somewhat different tack almost immediately and the looks like it will continue to be interesting.
It was successful enough to warrant a second season but not enough to get a bigger budget, or even a new theme song. However, this reinforces the feeling that the show is simply continuing. Marielle is one of a few characters off model, possibly in an attempt to add some detail, though like the first season, it continues to have mediocre art and animation at best. It has been the intriguing story and the characters that have really carried it and made this one special.
more...
This is starting out slow, but it remains clever.
it's still available on Crunchyroll and I recommend it highly, hell in a week or so you can be caught up!
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Over 25 days
I note that the Spanish nurse who has contracted Ebola got it from treating Father Miguel Pajares, who was reported dead on the 12th of August. Therefore, one can assume that 25 or more days passed since she was exposed.
Incubation is said to be no more than 21 days.
UPDATE: Belay all that.
Well then: JP Gibb in the comments points out that she had treated another priest since the death of Father Pajeares,
I swear, when I looked this up this morning trying to get the dates there was no mention of the second priest. However Father Manuel Garcia Viejo is also mentioned here. He died 12 days ago which puts this well within the 21 day incubation period.
Oh well. Thanks JP Gibb!
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October 05, 2014
Dispatch From the Department of Redundancy Department
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Well...Damn
There was a post here...with a typo.
I tried to edit it and then managed to delete the post.
Derp.
Anyway, as to the post, here is a related video with a minor RWBY spoiler.
The true measure of a man is not his attire but whether he keeps his word.
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October 04, 2014
Suddenly Last Month's Craziness Makes All Too Much Sense
On September 19, Information Dissemination reported on a bizarre attack by Al Qaeda affiliate AQIS that seemed to be an attempt to seize a Pakistani Warship. The stated intent was to use PNS Zulfiquar to launch an attack on the US Navy.
PNS Aslat, which was also an Al Qaeda target.
Robert Farley has a run-down of how unlikely ( but not impossible) a scenario this would have been. Note though that the attack was carried out with the assistance of several Pakistani Navy officers, so if they had, in fact gotten control of the vessel, the corsairs could, have conceivably done some mischief in the very, very brief window before the ship would have been sunk. "Mischief" might not even involve leaving harbor (or even the pier) if the general vicinity of a target was already known. The C-102 missiles the ship is armed with have a range of up to 500 kilometers depending on version. The Long War Journal has an account of the incident including info from a press release by AQIS and it is claimed that the operation was much more elaborate and involved a large number of Jihadis in uniform. One aspect of the attack was to have crewmen loyal to Al Qaeda take over the ship's main gun and fire rounds at USNS Supply which was scheduled to be doing refueling drills with Zulfiquar.
While the 3 inch gun would be unlikely to sink the big ship, fires and explosions on a combination Tanker/ Ammunition ship have great potential to get out of hand. The fact that USNS Supply is one of only 4 of the big AOEs left would have made any damage to the ship a severe blow to the Navy's ability to supply ships on far flung stations.
This is quite disturbing of course, but the large number of double agents involved is even more troubling.
Pakistani nukes have always been a source of worry, but this level of infiltration is terrifying. This is even more true in light of recent developments in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is developing tactical nukes and claims to have developed warheads small enough for that task. Significantly it is suggesting that it is or will be, putting them on its warships' surface to surface missiles.
Tactical weapons are, by necessity, deployed with the military forces, so the chances of them falling into jihadist hands is much greater. To get some idea of what these can do we'll look again to the well photographed shot of 'Atomic Annie' popping off a 15 kiloton W-9 shell.
Note the size of the weapon, 55 inches long 11 inches wide and 850 pounds. The later W-19 round for the same gun was only 600 pounds and had a slightly higher yield. This is not a particularly powerful nuke, but I'm being conservative in estimating what the Pakistani's are capable of. More disturbing; the size of the weapon is such that it could easily be smuggled into a city, and while the blast damage of such a weapon would be limited compared to a strategic nuke detonated at altitude, the fallout from a ground burst would be horrific.
The prospect of a terrorist nuclear attack, is as great as ever, so it's probably a good idea to look into how to prepare for modest sized ground bursts. RAND has a paper on that, available in PDF format here.
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This was Unexpected
It is certainly interesting...
The two Koreas shocked everyone on Saturday when a North Korean military delegation led by Hwang Pyong-so, Choe Ryong-hae, and Kim Yang-gon arrived in Incheon, South Korea on an unannounced trip.
Although the North Korean leadership structure is highly opaque, Hwang Pyong-so is widely believed to be the second highest ranking official after only Kim Jong-un.
This is particularly intriguing given rumors regarding Kim Jong Un's absence from public view over the last months., which have taken a rather different flavor over the last few days.
It's unclear if this is a sign of a major change (for good or ill) or if it is meant to reassure the ROK government that the status quo is unchanged, but it certainly bears watching.
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An Epiphany
For some time I've noted the existence of Nightcore, which has become the bane of my existence whenever I browse for AMVs. I'll come across an AMV of a song thinking "That has has potential."only to discover that it is the Nightcore cover.
Kids...My lawn...Off it...GET!
Then the other day, it occurred to me.
This is just The Chipmunks for today.
I guess this is what Vocaloid sounds like to native speakers of Japanese?
This genre is not without its merits though. It's perky, you can dance to it and after listening to that for an hour and a half, I find myself so disillusioned with humanity that I'm not really all that concerned about Ebola anymore.
"That's why I like Nightcore almost as much as negligence and stupidity!"
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October 03, 2014
Low Tech Electronica
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All That is Needed is Discipline, Competence and Awareness
...we opined about the matter of the Ebola patient in Texas, advised our readers that there was a lot of hype and pointed to the heartening examples of Senegal and Nigeria as representative of how, when alerted to the danger ahead of time and given basic health care facilities, even a third world government can successfully deal with an outbreak of this disease.
Last night however, I noted something that concerned me. It concerned me enough that I was not, in fact, able to sleep the rest of the night and this has haunted me all day. Before I potentially alarm our readers I think it advisable to get a second opinion, so we'll ask some of the Brickmuppet's Crack Team of Science Babes if they are optimistic about the situation in Dallas...
Well then.
Last night on Gateway Pundit, these two images in particular caused me some worry.
These pictures are allegedly of the cleanup of the vomit and blood soaked sheets in the apartment that the Ebola patient was in. It took days for the city to get a cleanup team out there which puts the family's efforts to break quarantine in a far more sympathetic light. as they were in the house with deadly, infectious blood and spew...in Dallas...In September.
It gets worse of course.
They aren't wearing any hazmat gear.
I did hazmat cleanup and response for 12 years and EVERYTHING in these pictures is wrong. The pressure washer is the LAST thing one should use as it temporarily aerosolized the infecty bits. Dispersing it into the dirt where children play is an additional sin and as Gateway Pundit notes, there is a woman in sandals walking through the stream unaware. The apartment cleaning crew's precautions consist of holding the bags of death at arms length.
EVERYONE in these photo's is likely exposed and their friends. coworkers and families are now at risk too when some or all of these people develop symptoms in 3-21 days. Every single person in the picture needs to be tracked down and quarantined. Not only that, other employees of the cleaning firm have likely been exposed as well, from the pressure washer, vehicle and the linens themselves, since no particular precautions seem to be being taken...those do not appear to be HAZMAT bags.
It gets worse. The pressure washer makes it likely that droplets got inhaled by some people. This could cause the bug to develop in the lungs first. Ebola is NOT airborne. It can't hang in the air like a flu virus, but it is conceivable that a pneumonic infection could make a victim able to spread the disease over a wider area more efficiently much like pneumonic plague. Note that plague is also not really airborne. It's spread mainly by fleas and exploding buboes, but if inhaled it is far more virulent as sneezing and coughing can project it a much longer distance. This does not require any mutation of the disease just that it get into the lungs.
Whoever sent these completely unprepared and untrained men (who are obviously woefully uninformed about what they are dealing with) to this apartment needs to be arrested, and tried for negligent manslaughter as soon as anyone associated with this fiasco dies. Whatever government agency hired these people needs to have its chairman, and all responsible for this fiasco face the same fate. There is NO reason why a city health department does not have a HAZWOPER qualified contractor or in house department to handle an infectious substance cleanup. That would seem to be one of the Health Department's main jobs. Heads need to roll, but I fear that a far worse fate awaits many Texans because of this gross negligence
What should have been a scary but contained event like the Nigeria outbreak now looks like it could very possibly be an utter catastrophe. Add everyone in these picture, the children who play in the complex, their families and friends and the owners of any dogs that happen by and lap up a bit of the water to the potentially exposed list.
Now it is possible that they were using bleach, but given the level of PPE displayed in the photo's I'd say that was not likely.
If this pans out like I fear (and I pray to God I am wrong) this is going to be a real disaster. If it finds an animal reservoir, it's going to be with us a long time.
Seirgen, regarding your inquiry....
It is never the time to panic. Situations like this demand anything but panic. Panic is why this disease is rampaging through Liberia, In that case though the doctors were caught flat-footed. Dealing with a malaria outbreak they were were unaware Ebola was in the area, and misdiagnosed the disease and infected themselves in the process. By the time they realized they were dealing with Ebola a huge number of the doctors were infected and dying themselves...The United States had ample warning and rescources that the doctors in Liberia ( and Nigeria for that matter) could only dream of. And we may have squandered it with negligence and stupidity.
Ebola Tan says: "Negligence and stupidity are two of my favorite things!"
UPDATE: It appears that the family has been moved out and a proper hazmat team has been called in. Unfortunately they have been stymied by agents from the CDC and Dallas City EMT both of whom have helpfully required that they file an approved cleanup plan.
We're doomed.
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October 01, 2014
Just Kick Your Heels Together and Say "It's a Destroyer! It's a Destroyer!"
JS Izumo, Japan's newest...um...destroyer, begins her sea trials.
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September 30, 2014
Ebola Arrives
This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Indeed, this is unlikely to be the only case like this we see.
Ebola is a spectacularly nasty disease and causes much alarm. Given the spread in Africa it is certainly cause for concern. However, it is not terribly contagious. This isn't even a remarkable situation as other, similar diseases like Lassa Fever and Marburg have entered the US recently with little fanfare and no apocalypses.
This situation is not to be taken lightly, but the greatest danger with this particular bug is panic. In the areas of Africa where panic has taken hold the outlook is quite grim . However, despite (and in some ways because of) its horrifying mortality rate, this disease can be brought under control much easier than, say, the flu. Indeed, the outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria seem to have been brought under control even as the situation deteriorates elsewhere.
Be aware. Don't be stupid. Above all don't panic.
Also: A sense of humor can help.
As terrible as this disease can be if it gets out of control, I'm actually more concerned with a couple of other pathogens that are already becoming well established here.
UPDATE:
On the other hand there is this ray of sunshine:
A former Food and Drug Administration chief scientist and top infectious disease specialist said that several people were exposed to the Ebola virus by the unidentified patient in Dallas, America’s first case, and it’s likely that many more will be infected.
There is also this Politico piece, which is very detailed and paints a particularly grim picture of the situation in West Africa.
Nevertheless, the best advice remains as follows...
...but stay informed.
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September 28, 2014
The Limits of Knowledge
Don has some rather scary footage taken by via a cellphone on Mount Ontake when it suddenly erupted. As many as 30 other hikers may be dead. I gather that there was some festival going on and there were a great many hikers on the summit. Japan monitors their fire mountains quite closely for obvious reasons, and yet this mountain had not given sufficient warning to close it to the public.
I suspect that there will be some recriminations over this. Seismometer readings, temperature sensor records and the recordings of instruments monitoring gas discharges will be examined and someone will be found to have dropped the ball and not detected that which will be determined to be obvious with 20/20 hindsight.
Decisions, however, are not made in hindsight. Nature is unpredictable and vulcanism in particular is a chaotic process that experts are constantly making discoveries about. It is highly likely that this was one of those discoveries.
The unexpected can befall us at any time, and it is good to be prepared, but all the preparation in the world will do little good if the earth suddenly explodes under one's feet.
As to how one might prepare for this...If there is any "lesson" to be learned here I think it would be to carry a few dust masks when climbing a volcano. They won't protect one from lava, asphyxiation or a pyroclasm, but the ash itself is quite deadly.
A life worth living carries a certain amount of risk. It is, therefore good to live it well while one has the chance.
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In A Better World
...this is the sort of thing that "Japanese Spam" would refer to.
Of course, that is dubious in an entirely different way.
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September 27, 2014
The Good,The Bad & That's It
There is no more ugly in my world because I've removed the mirror from my room.
Banality is below the fold. As compensation for that and a lack of respectable content, here is a piece by Fuji Choko.
more...
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Some Good News
A welcome follow-up to the previous post:
The Times of India reports that China and India are withdrawing from their positions in the disputed border region.
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September 24, 2014
Meanwhile:
While the world focuses on the current bombing campaign and the fact the the POTUS doesn't know that if your hands are full, you don't salute, there is news from the continent of Asia that as of this writing is getting little coverage in the US press. It is eliciting some interest in India though:
Xi Jinping tells People’s Liberation Army to be ready to win regional war
This, of course, is coming as Indian and Chinese troops are facing off in Ladakh.
There is still the matter of territorial disputes with Japan as well as generally deteriorating relations. The Chicom's 'terraforming' adventures with the minor powers in the South China Sea are unlikely to be seriously challenged if Japan is out of the picture.
There is another factor that might cause China to feel that there is a narrow window of opportunity for action and it again involves India. In 2012 there was a major scandal in India when it was revealed that India's ballistic missiles were unreliable, and India's nuclear deterrent was almost entirely delivered by Jaguars and Mirages which cannot really threaten China. India is modernizing its forces with a new class of missile submarines. These are fitted with four tubes carrying a total 12 SLBMs with a modest 750km range. However, in a few years, these will be swapped out for 4 of the K-4 missiles with a 3000+KM range. India currently has 90-110 warheads, most of which can't reach China. In a decade or less, if present trends continue, they will have a credible second strike capability with the ability to do China serious harm.
Despite some nontrivial internal issues, China is in ascendance and has become a major world power, but its chance to completely secure it's position is threatened by two developing nations poised to experience growth comparable to what China achieved over the last 30 years. This will happen just as China hits a 20-30 year demographic arrestor switch on it's growth. Chinese leaders may perceive a narrow opportunity to become THE power, as China was for most of it's history, but that opportunity (if it exists at all) is a fleeting one and it will soon be surrounded by new major powers.
I said poweRs.
Because India is not the only country in the area that is ascendant.
Indonesia has largely gotten it's act together in the last decades and it's booming economy is on the cusp of becoming a major economic powerhouse. It is further poised by geography to be a major regional naval power, in a commanding position on the trade routes that service China. China has started poking them too.
100 years ago this year, Germany had become alarmed at Russia's rapid industrial and military progress. They decided that they needed to nip that in the bud before Russia fully modernized and became a serious threat. Certain members of the German general staff decided to take a pro-active approach. That decision did not end well.
One factor has not been mentioned, and that is the USA. Well, there is another opportunity that will likely have a limited duration. The current astonishing display of foreign policy fecklessness is unlikely to continue to anything like the same degree past January 2017, regardless of who succeeds the current resident of the white house. In the intervening time however, it is quite possible that the USA has been largely discounted as a factor in the Politburo's risk assessment.
With regard to the terrifying risks involved in seriously poking India, we should not be limited to looking at the problem throufgh our eyes and weighing the costs with our value system. We look at the term "limited nuclear exchange" and see an oxymoron. However, it should be remembered that Xi Jinping is an admirer of Mao, who led 1 successful war against India and fought a guerilla war against Japan. However, Mao killed far more of his own people than Japanese or Indians, and he did it in the name of national greatness. The notion that the Chinese leadership is willing to take a gamble of this sort when the potential payoffs are so high should not be dismissed out of hand. They have 4000 years of history that tell them that China's proper place is as the Middle Kingdom..the center of the world. More disturbingly, with over a billion people....the way they may look at it ...they have spares.
UPDATE: With regard to the border dispute, it appears that the crisis, is, at least for now, winding down.
more...
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Do Want!
Do so very much want.
Of course this is likely to be rather more my realistic.
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September 23, 2014
Internet Navigation Failure...
For some reason the URL for The London Telegraph is taking me to The Onion.
At least, I HOPE that's what is happening.
UPDATE 10 minutes later :
A cautionary note. Take a moment between staring in horror at the above hyperlink and re-reading Harrison Bergeron to peruse this post by Popehat which Ace discusses at length here. Neither post discusses the story linked above, but focus on another recent infuriating headline; one that turned out not to quite match the facts at hand. Both posts should be read in full by everyone.
Back to the idiocy at hand...
The scary thing about this advertising story is that in this day and age, is that it's not actually inconceivable.
John C. Wright points out an indirect ramification of this story.
Science fiction writers often show the folly of some trend in modern life by envisioning a darkly humorous future where that trend is carried to an absurd extreme. When real life exceeds the imagined absurdity, my life as a science fiction writer grows difficult. [/quote]
On the other hand, this must mean we are finally living in the future....
....just not the one we'd hoped for.
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